JOHANNESBURG, Sept 7 – Zambia and Malawi have been reaping bumper maize harvests but may not be able to keep it up if the subsidies behind the success dry up.
The two southern African nations have seen a surge in maize production thanks to farm subsidy programmes, aimed at helping small-scale growers access seed and fertilizer, coupled with improved farming methods.
Zambia sees maize production rising for the past season to just over 3 million tonnes from around 2.8 million while Malawi is expected to harvest 3.8 million tonnes this year, up from the 3.5 million the previous year, despite some dry periods during the season. This represents a surplus of 1.2 million tonnes.
The growing seasons in both countries start around October with the onset of rains and lasts until around March or April.
But the fate of the subsidies is unclear as the cash depends on donor aid and the state of government finance.
Malawi’s donor-supported seed and fertiliser programme has already suffered a heavy blow after Britain, one of its major donors, cut aid after a diplomatic dispute.
In the last four years, Britain had spent $20 million on the programme, which has been in place since 2004 and has boosted harvests in a country that historically suffered food shortages.
“It’s clear that future funding for the subsidy programme is out and the trend shows that the number of beneficiaries has dwindled … because it’s an expensive undertaking,” Felix Jumbe, Farmers Union of Malawi president, said.
He added: “With donors out of the picture, it will be difficult for government to sustain the programme.”
Malawi has cut the number of small growers who will qualify for its Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) for the 2011/12 season to 1.4 million from 1.6 million in the previous season.
Erica Maganga, the Principal secretary in the Ministry of Agriculture, said the government was committed to the programme but did not say where the money was going to come from.
In Zambia, where the government solely funds the subsidy, the big concern is whether economic growth remains robust enough for the state to keep the cash flowing, said Oliver Saasa of the Economics Association of Zambia.
Much of its growth depends on the commodity cycle and copper prices and a sharp reversal on this front because of global economic woes would hit state coffers hard.
Saasa said another challenge was that many of the targeted farmers were not benefiting from the programme. Zambia’s FISP, which started in 2002, is aiming for 914,000 farmers in the 2011/12 season, up from 891,500 farmers in the previous season.
Saasa said many people were promptly selling their seeds and fertiliser for quick cash to others.
By Olivia Kumwenda
Source: Reuters Africa newsletter
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