People power witnessed in 2014 and 2015, for example in changes of government in Burkina Faso and Nigeria, will be proved limited in 2016. A combination of elections, constitutional pressures and financial difficulties will test governments across the region, including in Chad, Uganda, Congo (Brazzaville), Angola and South Africa. Incumbents will however retain their hold on power. These are some of the key messages of RiskMap 2016, published today by global business risk consultancy Control Risks. RiskMap highlights the most significant underlying trends in global risk and security, and provides a detailed view from the markets that will matter most in 2016.
According to RiskMap 2016, entrenched elites continue to hold sway in many frontier markets in Africa and few countries nurture the pre-conditions for change driven by the masses, either through the ballot or mass mobilisation. Amid widespread currency weakness and low commodity prices, the outlook for 2016 looks less gloomy than might be anticipated. With economic downturn in their home market, Chinese companies will continue to look overseas for opportunities to sustain growth. East Africa will remain a key target for Chinese investment. RiskMap identifies Ethiopia as the key regional market to watch in 2016.
Daniel Heal, Senior Managing Director, Control Risks East Africa, comments:
“The changes we have seen in Burkina Faso and Nigeria reflected circumstances unique to each country. In both situations, the growing inter-connectivity of societies and access to communications — both themes of RiskMap 2015 — contributed to landmark political reconfigurations. But these factors alone were not sufficient to generate change. And they are unlikely to trigger change elsewhere in Africa.
“While we anticipate governments across the continent surviving pressures on them in 2016, there may be heightened volatility and tension during sensitive periods such as elections, and the political environments they shape are evolving. This requires investors to understand fully the drivers of change and their potential to impact the business environment, and to be prepared for alterations to posture and strategy.”
Africa Outlook
East Africa:
Central Africa:
West Africa:
Southern Africa:
For the full report including essays and regional reports, please click here: http://www.apo.af/TbU4qU . To view the Map please follow this link: http://www.apo.af/mNML1y.
For the map graphic or for further information please contact:
Control Risks
Friederike Brinker
Marketing Director Europe & Africa
friederike.brinker@controlrisks.com
+49 30 533 288 55
+49 173 619 54 66
Notes to Editors:
About Control Risks
Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com) is a global risk consultancy specialising in political, security and integrity risk. The company enables its clients to understand and manage the risks of operating in complex or hostile environments. Through a unique combination of services, wide geographical reach and by adopting a close partnership approach with clients, Control Risks helps organisations effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.
Annex: Risk rating changes
Middle East and North Africa:
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